i) Determine the variance of the project.

ii) What is the probability of completing the project in 29 days?

iii) What is the scheduled duration with 90% probability?

Critical path = A – C – G

= 1 – 2 – 4 – 5

1] variance = 6 = 7 (for critical path)

2] probability of completing the project in 29 days

$Z = \frac{S.T – PD}{E}$

$Z = \frac{29 – 29}{\sqrt{6^2}} = \frac{0}{4.36}$

$Z = 0$

50% is the probability of completing the project in 29 days.

3]

1 84.13

X 90 $\quad$ X = 1.43

Z 97.72

$Z = \frac{S.T – P.D}{E}$

$1.43 = \frac{S.T – 29}{4.36}$

$S.T = 35.23 day$

It will take 35.23 days to complete 90% work.