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A PERT network details are given below:
Activity $T_{o}$ $T_{m}$ $T_{p}$
10-20 3 6 9
10-30 4 6 8
20-40 5 7 9
20-50 10 12 16
30-50 5 6 7
40-70 8 10 12
40-60 9 10 11
50-60 2 4 8
60-70 3 6 12
Z -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P% 0.13 2.28 15.87 50 84.13 97.72 99.87

i) Calculate project duration for 50 % probability.

ii) Workout probability of competition in 22 days.

1 Answer
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Project duration = 29.5 days

Critical path = 10-20-40-70 = 10-20-60-70

Step 3:

Probability (%) = 50 %

For 50 % probability, the scheduled time will be same as that of the project duration i.e. 29.5 days.

ii) For project duration = 22 days

S.T.= 22 days

P.D.= 29.5 days

By extrapolation:

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Hence, the project cannot be completed in 22 days.

Probability =0

Type 2 : CPM Network

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