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The Three time estimate for different activities of a project are given below
written 6.9 years ago by gravatar for teamques10 teamques10 ★ 68k modified 2.8 years ago by gravatar for pedsangini276 pedsangini276 • 4.8k

Mumbai University > Civil Engineering > SEM 8 > Construction Management

Marks: 10M

The Three time estimate for different activities of a project are given below:-

Activity T0 Tm Tp
1-2 2 5 8
2-3 4 9 20
2-4 4 7 16
2-5 8 11 20
3-6 3 7 17
4-6 7 10 13
4-5 0 0 0
5-7 3 5 13
6-7 2 3 10
7-8 2 4 6
Z -2 -1 0 1 2
P% -2.28 15.87 50 84.13 97.72

What is the probability of completing the project in 35 Days?
construction management
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written 6.9 years ago by gravatar for teamques10 teamques10 ★ 68k •   modified 6.9 years ago

Step 1 :-

For critical activity only

$\sigma = \frac{t_p-t_0}{6}$

Activity T0 Tm Tp $t_e = \frac{t_0+4t_m+t_p}{6}$ $\sigma$ $\sigma$
1-2 2 5 8 5 1 1
2-3 4 9 20 6
2-4 4 7 16 8 2 4
2-5 8 11 20 12
3-6 3 7 17 8
4-6 7 10 13 10 1 1
4-5 0 0 0 0
5-7 3 5 13 6
6-7 2 3 10 4 1.33 1.768
7-8 2 4 6 4 0.66 0.435
$\sum \sigma^2 = 8.203$

Step 2 :-

enter image description here

Project duration = 31 days

Critical path =1-2-4-6-7-8

Step 3:-

The probability of completing the project in 35 days is:

$\mathcal{z}=\frac{(\text{Scheduled Time-Project Duration})}{∈}$

S.T.= 35 Days

P.D.= 31 Days

$\epsilon = \sqrt{\sigma^2} = \sqrt{8.203} = 2.86\\ \mathcal{z} = \frac{35-31}{2.86}=1.398$

From table given in question, interpolation

enter image description here

$\boxed{\therefore P\% = 89.54\%}$
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